104 Courtyard Ter

New Market, VA 22844

$499,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,136 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 307 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,679/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-1,850/mo
• Annual: $-22,205/yr
• Cap rate: 1.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.42%
• DSCR: 0.31
• 1% rule: 0.34%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (65.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (66.3% below list).
• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (66.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#372 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 2.5% in New Market — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?