3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,448 sqft ·
Built 2021
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,645/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$288
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$345
Net cashflow
$-194/mo
Annual
$-2,332/yr
Cap rate
5.28%
Cash-on-cash
-3.62%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (14.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (28.5% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $164k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Blanchard (rural): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #13 of 270 in OK (top 5%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Blanchard Es (558 students, 0% FRL); Blanchard Hs (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #48 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 724 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 507 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Grady County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grady County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $185k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Blanchard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-R8DNCP7J3RY2GG
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29