637 Hahnel Rd

Romulus, NY 14541

$379,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$574
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-1,033/mo
• Annual: $-12,401/yr
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.03%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (48.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (48.9% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (48.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#983 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Romulus Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #535 of 755 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.