2282 Old Pipers Gap

Cana, VA 24317

$200,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,388 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,338/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,871/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (33.1% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#330 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Cana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.