10 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,200 sqft ·
Built 1942
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 189 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,381/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$50
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$290
Net cashflow
$884/mo
Annual
$10,607/yr
Cap rate
41.65%
Cash-on-cash
126.28%
DSCR
6.62
1% rule
4.60%
Cash to close
$8,400
Investor read
This is a 10-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $884 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $319 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $112 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#472 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 41.7% vs local median 11.4% in Prichard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?