413 N Bond St

Saginaw, MI 48602

$23,000D

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,090 sqft · Built 1899 · SingleFamily · Active · 291 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$121
• Tax + insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $911/mo
• Annual: $10,932/yr
• Cap rate: 53.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 169.75%
• DSCR: 8.55
• 1% rule: 5.89%
• Cash to close: $6,440

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $23k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $911 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $23k).
• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $20k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $159 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $690 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Middle School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #479 of 493 statewide, top 97%, 397 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 24% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saginaw School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1899 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 24% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 53.8% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1899 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.