2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,054 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Condo
· Active
· 378 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,598/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$939
Tax + insurance
−$298
HOA
−$480
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$546
Net cashflow
$335/mo
Annual
$4,025/yr
Cap rate
8.54%
Cash-on-cash
8.03%
DSCR
1.36
1% rule
1.45%
Cash to close
$50,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $179k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
It's been on market 378 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#586 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 597 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 378 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-R9VNF54594ZA48
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29