643 S Gunsmoke Trl

Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD 20657

$299,999D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,277 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,412/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$48
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-99/mo
• Annual: $-1,186/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#240 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Patuxent Appeal Elementary Campus (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #535 of 860 statewide, top 62%, 712 students, 55% FRL); Southern Middle (math 5% / reading 37%, grade F, #134 of 225 statewide, top 62%, 449 students, 43% FRL); Patuxent High (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #53 of 222 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 19% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 30 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $260k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 79% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Chesapeake Ranch Estates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?