3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,446 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 968 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,569/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$376
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$330
Net cashflow
$-139/mo
Annual
$-1,669/yr
Cap rate
5.39%
Cash-on-cash
-3.22%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (13.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (15.2% below list).
It's been on market 968 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $157k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
North East ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #276 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Windcrest El (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 491 students, 78% FRL); White Middle (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 944 students, 68% FRL); Roosevelt H S (math 20% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,096 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 2,599 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the North East ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 968 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RAJ3C9FE35AF71
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29