809 Greely Ave

Jacksonville, TX 75766

$26,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$136
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $489/mo
• Annual: $5,867/yr
• Cap rate: 28.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.59%
• DSCR: 4.59
• 1% rule: 3.46%
• Cash to close: $7,280

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $26k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $26k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $25k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $180 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $780 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#452 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jacksonville Middle (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 711 students, 79% FRL); Jacksonville H S (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,331 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.9% vs local median 2.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.