4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,312 sqft ·
Built 2002
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,476/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$544
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$520
Net cashflow
$-108/mo
Annual
$-1,295/yr
Cap rate
5.85%
Cash-on-cash
-1.60%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$81,197
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (6.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (14.6% below list).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $248k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mascotte Elementary School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 855 students, 62% FRL, charter); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.8% in Mascotte — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RAP8P57VPTZ8A0
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29