14 Blue Avocado Ln Ln

Brighton, NY 14623

$199,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,570/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$560
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $423/mo
• Annual: $5,071/yr
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in NY, #1,379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-.
• Rush-Henrietta Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #237 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: David B Crane Elementary School (math 74% / reading 44%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 326 students, 55% FRL); Charles H Roth Junior High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 531 students, 55% FRL); Rush-Henrietta Senior High School (math 97% / reading 72%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 1,300 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 29% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.9% in Brighton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,570/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1161% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.