Kitson Plan

Beasley, TX 77417

$255,990D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 690 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,481
• Tax + insurance: −$471
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-907/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $79,080

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-907/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (7.2% below list).
• It's been on market 690 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $254k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $79k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $2,375/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 690 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.