4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,678 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 207 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,720/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,426
Tax + insurance
−$290
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$571
Net cashflow
$433/mo
Annual
$5,198/yr
Cap rate
8.20%
Cash-on-cash
6.83%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$76,132
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $272k).
It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $239k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in OR, #2,085 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
Seaside SD 10 (town): math 11% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #53 of 58 in OR (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 98 units permitted in Clatsop County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.5% in Seaside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,720/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 573% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29