00063B Avondale Unit 436-12

Avon, CO 81620

$37,500C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,317 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,489/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$717
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$943
• Net cashflow: $2,504/mo
• Annual: $30,046/yr
• Cap rate: 88.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 293.75%
• DSCR: 14.07
• 1% rule: 11.97%
• Cash to close: $10,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($259 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#220 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Eagle County School District No. RE-50 (town): math 22% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #39 of 86 in CO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 448 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 387 units permitted in Eagle County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eagle County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 88.5% vs local median 2.3% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,489/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 744% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?