2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,215 sqft ·
Built 1994
· Condo
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,869/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$917
Tax + insurance
−$292
HOA
−$599
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$392
Net cashflow
$-331/mo
Annual
$-3,978/yr
Cap rate
4.02%
Cash-on-cash
-8.12%
DSCR
0.64
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$48,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (27.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $127k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#67 in FL, #1,139 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D, employment F.
Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 69% / reading 73%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 639 students, 40% FRL); River Ridge Middle School (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,107 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.1% in New Port Richey — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RBQKKM42B6E4Q0
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29