5327 Long Pointe Pass

Woodbury, MN 55129

$363,990F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,685/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,909
• Tax + insurance: −$607
• HOA: −$254
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-649/mo
• Annual: $-7,783/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $101,917

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $364k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-649 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (25.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($353k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#6 in MN, #153 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Gordon Bailey Elementary (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B, #168 of 857 statewide, top 20%, 653 students, 18% FRL); Woodbury Middle School (math 44% / reading 60%, grade C+, #63 of 258 statewide, top 25%, 1,108 students, 24% FRL); East Ridge High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #13 of 471 statewide, top 3%, 2,021 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Woodbury — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.