11944 Cypress Key Way

Royal Palm Beach, FL 33411

$490,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,222 sqft · Built 2017 · Townhouse · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,598/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax + insurance: −$867
• HOA: −$361
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $-955/mo
• Annual: $-11,464/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.36%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $137,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-955 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (34.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#135 in FL, #2,039 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Trails Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 492 students, 53% FRL); Crestwood Community Middle (math 49% / reading 52%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 724 students, 50% FRL); Royal Palm Beach High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 2,343 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 574 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,598/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 1870% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.