130 Lakeview Trl

Western Lake, TX 76087

$182,900C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,338 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,791/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$959
• Tax + insurance: −$432
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $24/mo
• Annual: $285/yr
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $51,212

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $183k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($285/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (2.1% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,506 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Curtis El (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 644 students, 51% FRL); Hall Middle (math 43% / reading 45%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 973 students, 47% FRL); Weatherford H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,525 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 663 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.9% in Western Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?