4040 Piedmont Dr #129

San Bernardino, CA 92346

$109,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 287 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,771/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $579/mo
• Annual: $6,953/yr
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.39%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#661 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, cost of living F.
• San Bernardino City Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #959 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oehl Elementary (479 students, 87% FRL); Serrano Middle (683 students, 90% FRL); San Gorgonio High (1,542 students, 88% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.4% in San Bernardino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Landscaping — Some shrubs need trimming
• Minor: Exterior paint — Light yellow siding has some discoloration