9169 N Swan Cir

Brentwood, MO 63144

$158,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 956 sqft · Built 1950 · Condo · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,809/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$402
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-444/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-444/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (4.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in MO, #689 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Brentwood (suburban): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #4 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Brentwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?