4400 Ocean Beach Hwy

Longview, WA 98632

$49,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $743/mo
• Annual: $8,910/yr
• Cap rate: 24.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.94%
• DSCR: 3.89
• 1% rule: 2.68%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#228 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Longview School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #185 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mint Valley Elementary (416 students, 79% FRL); Mt. Solo Middle School (408 students, 57% FRL); R A Long High School (922 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 24.5% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.