15 Mariners Ct

Centerport, NY 11721

$1,295,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax + insurance: −$2,414
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $275/mo
• Annual: $3,296/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $362,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#564 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Harborfields Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #76 of 590 in NY (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.1% in Centerport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.