6717 Alden Ln

Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$168,500B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$884
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,721/yr
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.25%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $47,180

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orangevale Open K-8 (572 students, 22% FRL); Sylvan Middle (647 students, 71% FRL); El Camino Fundamental High (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #378 of 1,170 statewide, top 32%, 1,246 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.