2323 Locust St #411

St. Louis, MO 63103

$139,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · Built 1922 · Condo · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,613/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$600
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-292/mo
• Annual: $-3,508/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.96%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (30.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $929 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent; built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $1,613/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 960% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?