2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
897 sqft ·
Built 1911
· Other
· Pending
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$800/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$414
Tax + insurance
−$201
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$168
Net cashflow
$17/mo
Annual
$203/yr
Cap rate
6.55%
Cash-on-cash
0.92%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$22,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $79k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($203/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $79k).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#593 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Sherrard CUSD 200 (rural): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #240 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mercer County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
10 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RE4VCEAPTGMA3C
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29