4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,232 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,019/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$415
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$424
Net cashflow
$53/mo
Annual
$641/yr
Cap rate
6.59%
Cash-on-cash
1.07%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$60,171
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($641/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (6.0% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mcclendon El (math 29% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 697 students, 66% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 36% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RE8M63BG5KSYZ9
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29