428 N Main St

Lewistown, IL 61542

$82,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · Built 1924 · Other · Active · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,226/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,379/yr
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.07%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#756 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lewistown CUSD 97 (rural): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #546 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $82k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.