42 Manitou Ave

Poughkeepsie, NY 12603

$419,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,288 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$1,289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$881
• Net cashflow: $-171/mo
• Annual: $-2,054/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $117,320

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $419k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-86/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (7.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $419k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $389k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poughkeepsie Middle School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #650 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 877 students, 82% FRL); Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Poughkeepsie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,196/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.