15753 Marcello Cir #105

Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$350,000B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,580 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,528/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$490
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,161
• Net cashflow: $1,805/mo
• Annual: $21,660/yr
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.10%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $350k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $318k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Memorial Elementary School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 743 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,528/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.