3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
667 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,504/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$192
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$316
Net cashflow
$393/mo
Annual
$4,719/yr
Cap rate
10.40%
Cash-on-cash
14.66%
DSCR
1.65
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$32,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#255 in IL, #4,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Loves Park Elem School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 351 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $66k; list at $115k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.9% in Loves Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— Significant wear and tear.
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt.
Major: exterior paint
— Needs repainting to improve appearance.
Major: roof inspection
— Aged roof may need replacement or repair.
CashFlowRE · CFR-REX6DK7AA6RGJK
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29