7496 Morelli Ave

Brookridge, FL 34613

$195,195D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Active · 445 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,788/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,024
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-465/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $54,655

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-465/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#421 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pine Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 45%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 991 students, 60% FRL); West Hernando Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 695 students, 58% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 12 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $195k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.