4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,344 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 201 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,269/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$44
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$267
Net cashflow
$722/mo
Annual
$8,670/yr
Cap rate
25.56%
Cash-on-cash
68.81%
DSCR
4.06
1% rule
2.82%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#339 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 2.6% in Hillsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29