632 Kickapoo Ct

Webster, TX 77598

$400,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,336 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$1,364
• HOA: −$108
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $-1,030/mo
• Annual: $-12,360/yr
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.04%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#433 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities D-.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Margaret S Mcwhirter El (math 26% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 789 students, 79% FRL); Clear Creek Int (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 722 students, 60% FRL); Clear Creek H S (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,400 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 25% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clear Creek ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 0.8% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,215/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1983% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?