4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,554 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Active
· 80 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,254/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,475
Tax + insurance
−$469
HOA
−$135
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$473
Net cashflow
$-298/mo
Annual
$-3,578/yr
Cap rate
5.02%
Cash-on-cash
-4.54%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$78,757
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (6.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (11.6% below list).
It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#39 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Kingsport (urban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #26 of 139 in TN (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Andrew Johnson Elementary School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #133 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 543 students, 0% FRL); Ross N. Robinson Middle School (math 42% / reading 40%, grade F, #37 of 333 statewide, top 12%, 955 students, 0% FRL); Dobyns - Bennett High School (math 23% / reading 56%, grade F, #28 of 332 statewide, top 9%, 2,514 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Kingsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-RG7H8K009P964A
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29