2100 Spring St

Springfield, IL 62704

$159,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,042 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $320/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($320/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (7.7% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $148k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Black Hawk Elem School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,477 of 2,056 statewide, top 74%, 246 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (math 3% / reading 8%, grade F, #635 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 539 students, 0% FRL); Springfield Southeast High Sch (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 1,261 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $160k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.