Vertex (Cool Springs) Plan

Bryant, AR 72022

$69,995B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 323 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$465
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $500/mo
• Annual: $6,003/yr
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.63%
• DSCR: 2.36
• 1% rule: 2.62%
• Cash to close: $19,599

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#16 in AR, #4,487 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bryant School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 238 in AR (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 446 units permitted in Saline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saline County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.9% in Bryant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.