3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,625 sqft ·
Built 2014
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 177 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,654/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,599
Tax + insurance
−$280
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$557
Net cashflow
$218/mo
Annual
$2,612/yr
Cap rate
7.15%
Cash-on-cash
3.06%
DSCR
1.14
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$85,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (13.0% below list).
It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $265k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gluckstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RHKJRY6W9G85WM
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29