4111 Elks Dr

Las Cruces, NM 88005

$185,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,634/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $13/mo
• Annual: $151/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($151/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jornada Elementary (490 students, 100% FRL); Vista Middle (602 students, 100% FRL); Centennial High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #33 of 110 statewide, top 29%, 1,615 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.