10912 Gulf Fwy #68

Houston, TX 77034

$92,400D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1980 · Condo · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$340
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-732/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $25,872

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-732/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (11.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $639 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rick Schneider Middle (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 575 students, 92% FRL); South Houston H S (math 50% / reading 33%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,213 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 71% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?