3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,712 sqft ·
Built 1994
· Other
· Active
· 373 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$12,428/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,356
Tax + insurance
−$410
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,610
Net cashflow
$6,019/mo
Annual
$72,232/yr
Cap rate
17.58%
Cash-on-cash
40.31%
DSCR
2.79
1% rule
1.94%
Cash to close
$179,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $640k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($72k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $640k).
It's been on market 373 days — a 12% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $563k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#340 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bogue Sound Elementary (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B, #168 of 1,410 statewide, top 12%, 467 students, 99% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $179k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 22.6% in Broad Creek — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
At $12,428/mo this rent would consume 212% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 373 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RKF02730A0RAWE
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29