604 Centennial St

New Castle, PA 16101

$90,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $306/mo
• Annual: $3,675/yr
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.58%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $90k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.