1401 Foster Ave

Toledo, OH 43606

$19,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,771 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax + insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $873/mo
• Annual: $10,472/yr
• Cap rate: 58.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 187.94%
• DSCR: 9.36
• 1% rule: 6.43%
• Cash to close: $5,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grove Patterson Academy Elementary School (math 47% / reading 66%, grade C+, #761 of 1,584 statewide, top 48%, 403 students, 38% FRL); Jesup W. Scott High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #726 of 781 statewide, top 94%, 736 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 72% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Toledo City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 58.9% vs local median 7.5% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.