2215 Oak St #202

Santa Monica, CA 90405

$795,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · Built 1978 · Condo · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,057/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax + insurance: −$946
• HOA: −$415
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$852
• Net cashflow: $-2,325/mo
• Annual: $-27,905/yr
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.54%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $222,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $795k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (51.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (49.0% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($771k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (51.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#178 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grant Elementary (542 students, 27% FRL); John Adams Middle (837 students, 38% FRL); Santa Monica High (2,678 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $440k; list at $795k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 1.2% in Santa Monica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?