30 Catalina Dr

Milton, NY 12020

$1,286,996F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,187 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,749
• Tax + insurance: −$2,145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $-6,270/mo
• Annual: $-75,238/yr
• Cap rate: 0.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.88%
• DSCR: 0.07
• 1% rule: 0.26%
• Cash to close: $360,359

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $1.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-75k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (70.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (74.2% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.17M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $332k (74.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ballston Spa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 48% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $1.29M implies a 635% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 0.4% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 74% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.