3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,366 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,804/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$813
Tax + insurance
−$210
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$379
Net cashflow
$402/mo
Annual
$4,823/yr
Cap rate
9.40%
Cash-on-cash
11.11%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$43,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Sedgefield Elementary (math 9% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,066 of 1,108 statewide, top 96%, 469 students, 91% FRL); Menchville High (math 39% / reading 79%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 1,788 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $55k; list at $155k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,804/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2008% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RNX6H38YCBC4P3
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29