70 Browns Ln

Niantic, CT 06371

$379,000D-

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 911 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,249/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-627/mo
• Annual: $-7,526/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-627 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (40.7% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#35 in CT, #2,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Regional School District 18 (rural): math 67% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #16 of 153 in CT (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mile Creek School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #28 of 553 statewide, top 7%, 310 students, 14% FRL); Lyme-Old Lyme High School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #14 of 194 statewide, top 8%, 407 students, 12% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $379k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Niantic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.