3157 Bluebird Ln

Belvedere Park, GA 30032

$189,900C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,333 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $883/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($883/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#153 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $190k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Belvedere Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.