2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
841 sqft ·
Built 1981
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$957/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$250
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$201
Net cashflow
$8/mo
Annual
$97/yr
Cap rate
6.39%
Cash-on-cash
0.36%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$26,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($97/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($957 rent vs $95k).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ira Cross Jr El (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 623 students, 75% FRL); Manor Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 614 students, 75% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 47% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $39k; list at $95k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29