43 Ironwood Rd

Victoria, TX 77904

$239,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-115/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-115/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (22.8% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.